Economist Peter Schiff posted a stark warning on X on July 23, 2026: Brent crude's rapid climb back above $90 per barrel threatens to erase June's better-than-expected inflation drop and send July CPI sharply higher.

June's headline CPI fell 0.4% from May, well past the 0.1% decline economists polled by Reuters had forecast. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%. Energy drove most of that improvement. The BLS energy index sank 5.7% in June, its steepest monthly fall since April 2020, and gasoline alone dropped 9.7%. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy, was flat for the month and up 2.6% year-over-year.

Schiff's concern is straightforward: that relief was almost entirely oil-dependent. "Investors celebrated the June CPI, as a 30% fall in the price of oil led to a larger-than-expected decline," he wrote. "But so far in July, the price of oil is already up 30%, back above $90 per barrel. If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI could be a doozy!"

Brent hits $100 as Houthi attacks rattle supply routes

Hours after Schiff's post, Brent did cross $100, settling at $100.71 on Thursday, its highest in nearly two months. WTI moved above $90 for the first time since June. The trigger was a fresh Houthi attack on Saudi oil tankers, adding another layer of risk to Middle East shipping lanes. Britain has already publicly condemned the strikes and called on the Houthis to stop.

One detail worth noting: even after June's monthly drop, BLS data showed energy prices were still 15.7% above year-ago levels, with gasoline up 26.7% annually. Households were already exposed. A sustained move above $100 through the rest of July could compound that pressure significantly.

Markets are taking the inflation risk seriously. Traders currently price a 37.6% chance the Fed hikes rates at its July meeting, up from near-zero odds just weeks ago. Gold topping US Treasuries in central bank reserves for the first time fits the same broader picture of investors repositioning around sticky inflation expectations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.