SanDisk crushed fourth-quarter earnings. Revenue hit $8.97 billion, crushing the $8.48 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share reached $39.25 against expectations of $34.96. Year-over-year, the jump was staggering: revenue up 372%, earnings up 68% quarter-to-quarter. Yet shares tanked 9% in early trading.
Wall Street had other things on its mind. The problem was never the past, but what comes next. Company guidance for Q1 pointed to revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, missing the $10.82 billion consensus by about $20 million at the midpoint. That shortfall mattered more than any quarterly beat.
Margins told the same story. SanDisk projected gross margins of 83% to 85% for the coming quarter, down from the 84.6% it just delivered. Adjusted EPS guidance of $44 to $46 aligned with consensus at $44.21, offering no upside surprise to lift investor sentiment. As analysts at Vital Knowledge noted, the absolute numbers looked spectacular on paper, but the forward miss was unmistakably negative.
Data center sales painted a brighter corner of the picture. Q4 data center revenue reached $2.98 billion, more than doubling from the previous quarter and exceeding the $2.74 billion estimate. That segment showed genuine momentum. But one strong quarter couldn't offset a guidance reset that signaled management expected deceleration ahead.
The stock had already run 390% year to date before earnings. Investors had priced in acceleration. Instead they got consolidation, and the market punished the disappointment accordingly.
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