El Salvador's presidential race for February 2027 is shaping up with the announcement of candidates from the two main opposition parties, posing a test to President Nayib Bukele's third-term ambitions and his Bitcoin-centered policies.
ARENA, the Nationalist Republican Alliance, chose Maytee Iraheta, a former lawmaker, marking the party's first all-female ticket alongside her running mate. The Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) nominated Rafael Aguirre, a physician and union leader. Neither candidate supports Bukele's Bitcoin initiative; instead, both campaigns criticize it as a financial misstep.
Bukele remains widely supported, with approval ratings hitting 94 percent recently, mostly driven by his handling of crime rather than his Bitcoin agenda. A recent poll showed only 2.2% of Salvadorans identify Bitcoin as Bukele’s biggest failure.
Significantly, Bitcoin lost its mandatory legal tender status after El Salvador secured a $1.4 billion IMF loan in early 2025, reverting the US dollar as the primary currency for day-to-day transactions. Despite this, the government’s National Bitcoin Office continues buying about one Bitcoin daily, with reserves climbing to approximately 7,730 BTC by late July.
The IMF remains cautious, frequently warning about fiscal risks and governance challenges linked to Bitcoin adoption. It also questions the strategy's effectiveness in expanding financial access to Salvadorans without bank accounts.
Bukele’s commitment to incrementally increase Bitcoin reserves contrasts with the market’s volatility. Bitcoin’s price hovers near $65,300 but remains far below its October 2025 high above $126,000. Earlier this year, the price drop wiped out around $300 million of state Bitcoin value.
This market uncertainty means the incoming president inherits a financial position exposed to Bitcoin's ups and downs, with future movement influenced more by US regulatory developments than El Salvador’s local politics.
