XRP is heading into August after wrapping up its best month of the year, but the enthusiasm that lifted prices seems to be fading fast. Despite closing July with solid gains around 6.83%, institutional activity, especially from ETF desks, has slowed dramatically. On 10 out of 17 trading days in July, ETF flows registered zero, signaling a lack of new buying interest.

Demand Drops Amid Historical August Weakness

July’s strength continues a six-year streak of green months for XRP, making it the token’s most consistent period of gains. The median return for July stands at 6.91%, the highest across all months, highlighting how reliable this rally has been over time. Yet August has historically been a different story. It holds the flattest average return at just 0.43%, and for the past four years it has finished red every time. This pattern appears to be influencing current market sentiment.

ETF activity mirrors this pattern: zero inflows on more than half the trading days in July, including two separate three-day stretches with no movement, the latest stretching right up to month-end. In total, fund demand accounted for about $12.4 million during the month, a small fraction compared to the $997 million total managed by ETF complexes. Trading volumes tell a similar tale, dropping from $14 million at the start of the month to under $9 million by July 24, a 37% decline.

On-chain metrics support the picture of cautious participants. XRP exchange outflows, which typically indicate accumulation when strong and steady, shrank by 66% mid-month. While coins are still leaving exchanges, the pace is much slower, suggesting buyers are stepping back rather than selling off. Neither institutional funds nor retail investors appear willing to push prices higher just yet, ahead of a historically directionless August.

Price remains stuck near $1.10, confined within a narrow range defined by key Fibonacci levels drawn between mid-March and mid-May price swings. The $1.01 support and $1.21 resistance act as clear boundaries, encapsulating what could be a testing month for XRP’s resilience. Similar cautiousness has been observed in Bitcoin as it approaches August, with traders scaling back protection ahead of key Fed decisions, reflecting wider market uncertainty.