Interest rate announcements from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will dominate market attention this week, as investors eye potential signals of further monetary tightening amid rising energy prices. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 33% probability to a U.S. rate hike, with prediction markets at 19%, marking a sharp increase from earlier this month.

Thursday will be a key day, featuring U.S. second-quarter GDP and June Personal Consumption Expenditure data. Should growth remain solid alongside persistent inflation, the market could lean into expectations for a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment. That scenario would likely weigh on cryptocurrencies, as higher yields and a stronger dollar typically dampen demand. Conversely, weaker figures might ease pressure on crypto assets.

Key Macro Events and Monetary Policy

All 70 economists surveyed by Reuters agree the Bank of England will keep rates steady at 3.75% this week. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is forecasted to maintain its 1% benchmark rate, with some anticipating a possible hike later this year.

Crypto Sector Highlights

The crypto calendar includes important operational adjustments and earnings releases that may influence market sentiment. BitMEX plans to settle and delist 35 derivatives contracts as part of its wind-down process. also the FTX Recovery Trust is preparing to distribute approximately $900 million to creditors, starting July 31.

Corporate earnings reports from Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy will offer insights into retail trader activity and how companies are managing their cryptocurrency Treasury holdings.

Here is what to watch this week (all times ET):

  • July 27: CFTC’s comment period closes on potential 24/7 derivatives trading and perpetual contracts for physical commodities.
  • July 29: Polygon’s Ithaca hard fork upgrade launches on mainnet.
  • July 30: BitMEX settles derivatives contracts and continues exchange wind-down.
  • July 31: Fifth distribution by FTX Recovery Trust to creditors.

On the macro front, the U.S. durable goods orders report arrives July 27. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation data is due July 28, followed by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and press conference on July 29. Eurozone GDP flash estimates come July 30, with the Bank of England’s rate announcement scheduled for the same day.

This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.