SpaceX shares tumbled again on Tuesday, hitting a fresh low of $109.53, marking a nearly 50% plunge from their peak at $225.64 just weeks ago. The stock, which had debuted at $150 last month, has now shed close to 30% since its IPO. This sharp decline erased over $1.2 trillion in market value, a staggering amount roughly equal to Tesla’s entire market cap.

Despite a highly anticipated Starship flight last Friday, investor confidence remains shaky. The 13th test flight successfully launched 20 next-gen Starlink V3 satellites, reignited an engine in orbit, and executed what SpaceX called its softest ocean splashdown to date. SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot expressed excitement, noting, "I’m a little over the moon right now." However, the Super Heavy booster missed its landing burn, crashing harder than planned into the Gulf of Mexico. Recovery wasn't expected this time, but CEO Elon Musk hinted at plans to catch the Starship upper stage with the "Mechazilla" tower on the next mission if the data checks out.

Lock-Up Expiry and Earnings Loom Large

Investor nerves are tightening ahead of SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report scheduled for August 4. Just two days later, a massive lock-up expiry will free up to 911.5 million shares about 20% of locked stock to hit the market. The potential flood of shares adds pressure as traders weigh the company’s near-term outlook. Options activity reveals mixed sentiment, with call purchases outnumbering puts but a hefty $442 million in premiums changing hands.

Charles Moon, a tech analyst at Prosper Trading Academy, downplayed the impact of the lock-up, saying it "won’t be as bad as everyone fears," though he admits it won’t help either. Meanwhile, SpaceX's decision to halt Falcon 9 bookings beyond 2028 shows how key the Starship program’s success is for the company’s future. Investors are watching closely to see if the momentum from the recent Starship flight can translate into sustained growth amid these looming challenges.

This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.