Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its position around $64,000 amid growing pressure from rising US Treasury yields. The two-year Treasury note yield climbed to 4.31%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target, signaling persistent expectations for tighter monetary policy. This scenario is dampening enthusiasm for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Fed Policy Expectations Weigh on Markets
The two-year Treasury yield acts as a barometer for market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve moves. Despite a softer-than-expected US inflation report, yields have pushed higher, suggesting investors anticipate interest rates staying restrictive for an extended period. CME FedWatch data shows the market prices in a pause on rates at the Fed’s upcoming meeting but still considers possible hikes later in the year and into 2026. These factors have already weighed on major stock indices and risk-sensitive sectors.
Bitcoin’s Battle at $64,000
Traders monitor Bitcoin’s behavior near $64,000 closely. Market analyst Wealthmanager warns that falling decisively below this level could disrupt Bitcoin’s short-term bullish trend. The cryptocurrency faced resistance near its 50-month exponential moving average around $65,950. Analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin may be mirroring patterns from its 2022 bear market, suggesting a tough road to sustained recovery above this moving average.
Despite the pressure from rising yields, the correlation between bond markets and Bitcoin is complex. For instance, in May 2025, 30-year Treasury yields rose to 5.15% while Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, indicating that increased yields do not always trigger crypto sell-offs. Such moves can instead reflect investor concerns about inflation or fiscal policies, causing demand for alternative assets to rise in tandem.
This time, crypto weakness might be more about portfolio rebalancing and general uncertainty, rather than solely fears over Fed rate changes.
