Imagine parking $1,000 in Oracle’s stock a year ago and watching it shrink to less than half by today. That’s exactly what happened, as shares plunged from nearly $250 to around $120, wiping out over 50% of their value in just 12 months. Despite Oracle’s big AI partnership with OpenAI and a hefty $7 billion Pentagon contract announced last June, the stock couldn’t shake off its steep decline.
Oracle’s role in the AI space is significant, especially through its Stargate collaboration with OpenAI. Investors hoped this would translate into profits by mid-2026. Instead, the company’s share price hit a fresh 52-week low of $114.50 before inching back to $119.96. That means if you invested $1,000 on July 29, 2025, you’d now be holding just $479.90 worth of shares.
Two main worries haunt investors. First, OpenAI has committed to a massive $300 billion, five-year contract with Oracle, but leaked financial reports raise doubts about whether OpenAI can actually cover those payments. Second, Oracle itself is under strain to fuel this AI push. The company recently announced efforts to raise $40 billion through debt and equity, signaling the project’s huge financial demands.
Some critics, including AI skeptic Ed Zitron, warn that the stakes are sky-high. If the AI boom fails to deliver, Oracle and its founder Larry Ellison could face serious financial trouble. The deal’s scale, combined with Oracle’s aggressive financing moves, means the company’s future hinges heavily on this gamble. Investors watching this play out might want to keep a close eye on how Oracle manages its AI ambitions going forward.
