Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has brought intelligence to Washington indicating Iran is increasing its nuclear and missile programs, specifically pointing to activities at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. He claims Iran has been misleading international negotiators, casting doubt on their sincerity during ongoing talks.
The revelation arrives during Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, marking their first direct discussion since tensions with Iran escalated. Market reactions have been swift: the odds of a U.S.-Iran peace meeting by July 31, 2026, have dropped to 5.5%, down from 8% within a day.
Investors also see a diminished chance of a full deal, with the probability now at 26.5% for 2026. Despite this, the likelihood of a Trump-Netanyahu encounter remains close to 99%. Participants will be closely watching any official responses following the meeting, as confirmation of these intelligence claims or potential military moves could further reshape the diplomatic landscape.
