Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its 'Overweight' rating on SpaceX, keeping the price target at $300 as the company prepares to release its first public earnings report on August 4. This target suggests a potential 165% gain from the recent trading price near $113 per share.
Analyst Adam Jonas emphasizes that investors are keenly awaiting updates on SpaceX’s AI infrastructure, Starlink operations, and long-term growth plans. The main catalyst lies in the company’s intentions to add over 2 gigawatts of AI computing capacity next year, a move that could unlock substantial new revenue streams if demand in AI infrastructure continues to grow rapidly.
Jonas also highlights the importance of securing large cloud infrastructure contracts, known as neocloud deals, and the adoption rates of xAI’s Grok model through the Cursor platform. Positive signs in Cursor’s annual recurring revenue would further bolster confidence in SpaceX’s AI ventures. However, Morgan Stanley cautions about risks such as capital expenditures exceeding the projected $50 billion for 2026, which could pressure margins, along with potential shareholder dilution if more fundraising occurs before year-end, and slower Starlink subscriber growth.
Wall Street’s Mixed but Generally Bullish Stance
The $300 target is higher than the average Wall Street forecast but remains below the most optimistic estimates. Data from 30 analysts on TipRanks shows a 'Moderate Buy' consensus for SpaceX, with 23 recommending buy, six hold, and one sell. The average price target is $239, implying about 110% upside, with individual price predictions ranging from $115 to as high as $800.
