Fidelity Digital Assets reports that the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has hit a record high, highlighting growing conviction despite ongoing market weakness. According to research analyst Zack Wainwright, this group of holders provides one of the clearest indicators of investor confidence in Bitcoin.
Fidelity’s data shows that nearly 15 million BTC have remained unmoved for at least 155 days, suggesting a steadfast commitment among this cohort. Historically, this supply expands during bear markets and contracts in bull runs, and it reached this milestone on July 5, 2026, when prices were still under pressure. Nearly 40% of these long-term holders are currently facing unrealized losses but have chosen to maintain their positions, a sign of growing maturity in the market.
Market Signals and Upcoming Challenges
Bitcoin’s current price sits about 50% below its October 2025 high above $126,000. Previous bear markets saw far steeper drops of 70% to 90%, indicating a potentially less severe downturn this time. Wainwright indicated that a range of on-chain metrics, including long-term holder supply, are nearing levels that have historically coincided with market cycle bottoms, though whether this marks a definitive turning point remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Cowen from BeInCrypto suggests the market’s bottom could come in the fourth quarter, projecting a low near $44,000 based on seasonal trends. Both analysts stress the current bear market’s framework is still intact and that August will be key, as it has historically brought losses of 15% to 18% during prior midterm election years.
This degree of investor conviction aligns with broader market caution, as detailed in our recent coverage of Bitcoin’s outlook for further declines. Fidelity has not confirmed if this signals the bear market’s end but emphasizes the strength of long-term holders navigating these conditions.
This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
