Ethereum’s price recently slipped below its overall cost basis of $2,300, signaling the asset is currently 'cheap' for holders. Over 41 million ETH are now underwater, a significant factor that tends to reduce selling pressure and limit immediate downside risks. Despite this, the analytics firm CryptoQuant warns that a solid bottom for ETH may not materialize soon, forecasting a potential floor near $1,150 based on historical data.
Historical Patterns Suggest Deeper Decline Possible
CryptoQuant’s analysis relies heavily on the Realized Price Bands metric, which during the 2022 bear cycle successfully indicated Ethereum’s market bottom when the price touched the lower band. If this pattern holds, the current ETH price of approximately $1,885 could still fall by roughly 38% to hit the durable bottom at $1,150. This projection challenges the perception that Ethereum’s dip under $2,300 marks the final trough.
Multiple Indicators Show ETH Has Room to Fall
Further signals reinforce the cautionary outlook. The ETH/BTC Exchange Inflows Ratio, a measure of relative selling pressure, currently sits at 0.8 but historically dropped to around 0.4 during previous market bottoms in 2020 and 2025. Similarly, the ETH/BTC MVRV metric remains above oversold thresholds that previously corresponded with strong market reversals. ETF holdings of ETH relative to Bitcoin have improved but have yet to reach lows seen in past bottom phases. These metrics collectively indicate that Ethereum’s price has not yet reached the extremes that typically mark a market floor.
Meanwhile, the realized price bands and spot volume data suggest undervaluation, implying some positive signals amid mixed indicators. The tension between these signals highlights an uncertain intermediate future for ETH prices.
Staking Demand Sets New Records Amid Price Uncertainty
Adding complexity, staking demand remains solid with over 40 million ETH currently staked, representing a record 33% staking ratio of total supply. This strong commitment by holders could act as a buffer against further price declines, as staked ETH reduces liquidity in the market. However, whether this will effectively mitigate downside risk is still an open question.
The interplay of heavy losses among holders and unprecedented staking levels creates a unique dynamic for Ethereum’s market trajectory. Investors watching ETH should be mindful that despite recent price softness, the path to a confirmed bottom could involve further significant volatility.
This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
