Polymarket’s prediction odds for the CLARITY Act passage nosedived from 82% in February to just 27% on July 30. Once seen as a near-certainty, the bill now faces a stalled future, unraveling the hype built on institutional support.
Backed by $1.4 billion in lobbying, the bill has attracted some of the biggest names in finance. BlackRock publicly endorsed it, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Jack Dorsey from Block sent urgent letters to push it forward, and even the American Bankers Association softened its opposition. Still, these heavyweights couldn’t overcome Senate gridlock and the ticking clock.
Political Deadlock and Turf Wars Stall Progress
Section 10404 of the Act has become a flashpoint. On July 29, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt publicly mocked bank CEOs over it, highlighting deep tensions among stakeholders. The administration’s open jab at key financial players signals how contentious negotiations have become, turning what could be smooth consensus into a power struggle.
Adding to the challenge is the Senate’s tight schedule. With less than a week before the August 8 recess, priorities shifted sharply toward confirming nominees and advancing sanctions on Russia. Senator Thune confirmed the CLARITY Act won’t make the cut, making its passage unlikely. In this environment, even massive lobbying can’t translate to legislative victory or speed.
