The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has fallen to 30%, down from an earlier 50%, according to Galaxy Research. This downgrade reflects a narrow Senate vote forecast and ongoing resistance from Republican senators.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s prediction market suggests a 39% chance the Act might pass by 2026, though some experts believe actual odds could be even lower. Despite these dimming prospects, financial institutions continue to build positions tied to the legislation, signaling enduring confidence in eventual regulatory clarity.
