Bitcoin is displaying initial signs of accumulation even as the crypto market faces a 12% decline over the last quarter, according to a joint report by Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode. Their "Charting Crypto Q3 2026" analysis, released July 24, highlights a tug-of-war between early Bitcoin strength and persistent macroeconomic pressures.
Mixed Signals from Market and Onchain Data
The report draws on over 25 charts covering onchain trends, institutional flows, macro factors, and cross-asset relationships. While Bitcoin indicators hint at a bottoming phase, ongoing challenges from tighter liquidity, geopolitical tensions, and weak demand for crypto ETFs create a fragile environment. The total crypto market cap, excluding stablecoins, dropped about 12% during Q2 2026. Meanwhile, stablecoin supplies hit record highs, suggesting some investors are shifting into dollar-pegged assets rather than exiting crypto altogether.
Bitcoin’s correlations with traditional assets have shifted notably. Its 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 has slumped from 0.58 in late 2025 to just 0.12, while its link with gold climbed to 0.57. Coinbase and Glassnode interpret this as Bitcoin behaving more like a store of value influenced by interest rates and liquidity, rather than a high-growth tech stock. Still, the researchers stopped short of declaring a definitive market bottom.
Onchain data shows that bitcoins moved within the last three months remain near multi-year lows, and the proportion of Bitcoin supply held at a profit has fallen below historical lower bands. Such conditions tend to indicate accumulation phases. Yet, long-term holders have paused buying, leaving the picture split between low valuations and modest investor conviction. Coinbase quantitative strategist Colin Basco described this as "early innings of a bottoming process rather than a durable low already in place."
ETF flows for U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum products remained negative in the first half of 2026, though the pace of outflows has slowed. This could point to a stabilization of institutional demand, though no clear rebound is yet visible.
Market participants continue to monitor these developments carefully, aware that macro headwinds from hawkish Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks still restrict liquidity and pressure prices.
This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
