Traders have placed around $5 billion in notional value on the outcome of the CLARITY Act, a bill meant to clarify crypto regulation in the US. Yet, Charles Schwab reports that this event only accounts for about 4.3% of bitcoin's daily price moves this year, a far cry from what many might expect given the size of the bet.
The most prominent bets in the bitcoin options space are calls with strike prices of $70,000 and $72,000 set to expire this Friday. Jimmy Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, noted that much of this positioning is based on hopes the CLARITY Act would pass before the month’s end. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune dampened those hopes on July 23 by confirming the bill won't clear before the congressional recess.
Market Sentiment Shifts Away From the Bill
traders have dialed back protection against the kind of volatility that actually moves prices. The put-to-call ratio dropped from about 0.76 in late June to 0.52, indicating fewer puts relative to calls. This means there’s less demand for downside protection ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision, despite uncertainty around the CLARITY Act.
Meanwhile, the real force shaping bitcoin’s price comes from the Treasury market, not Washington. The bond market currently sets a hurdle near $151,000 for bitcoin, tied to real yields. Every 100 basis point change in real yields chips away at this level, influencing how traders price bitcoin far more than regulatory news.
This dynamic reveals that the $5 billion wager is only about a sixtieth of what the headline figures suggest in terms of market impact. The structure of the options market shows limited conviction behind these bets, while broader macro shifts drive real price moves.
This material is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
