Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, nearly 50% below its all-time high near $126,000 set in October 2025. Historical patterns from three previous bear markets hint at a final plunge before the current cycle bottoms out, possibly pushing BTC as low as $35,000. Yet, some on-chain data suggests Bitcoin might have already hit its generational low, creating a tension that could shape its price action in the months ahead.

Seasonal Trends Point Toward More Downside

Crypto analyst CryptoCon compared the last phases of bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 to the ongoing cycle. Each time, Bitcoin saw an initial drop in August-September losses ranged from 28% to 54%. Applying this pattern to 2026 implies a further decline of roughly 26%, which would pull the price down to around $46,000.

Historically, the cycle didn't stop there. The following leg, happening from November to January, was even harsher with drops exceeding 50% in two of the past three cycles. If this repeats with a 30% decline, BTC could reach the $35,000 level in early 2027. This deeper target aligns neatly with the 0.618 logarithmic Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical marker at $34,722.

This outlook matches other analyses too. Earlier research from BeInCrypto predicted a bottom near $44,000 to $47,000 by October. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has also highlighted a similar zone just below $45,000. However, CryptoCon himself acknowledges that these historical patterns might clash with current on-chain metrics indicating a potential early low.

On-Chain Indicators Show Holder Behavior Diverging

One critical on-chain metric involves the cost basis of Bitcoin holders. Analyst therationalroot tracks the ratio between short-term and long-term holder cost bases, a signal that has reliably marked generational bottoms when compressed to one. In past cycles, when recent buyers’ average entry price aligned with veteran holders’, selling pressure petered out, and accumulation phases began.

Currently, this ratio is dropping fast but remains above one, implying there could still be room for further downside consistent with seasonal trends. Long-term holders’ average cost basis is close to $40,000, a level that often acts as a magnet for cycle lows. This suggests some holders haven’t fully capitulated yet, which might extend the bearish phase.

The tug of war between historical seasonal cycles and emerging on-chain behavior sets the stage for a volatile and closely watched second half of the year. Bitcoin’s path may hinge on whether new buying interest can overpower the expected seasonal weakness, or if the final leg down will push prices deeper toward $35,000.

This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.