Bitcoin’s price could climb to $200,000 if the CLARITY Act passes into law, according to some analysts. However, the bill faces seven obstacles before it even reaches a Senate vote, casting uncertainty on this optimistic outcome.

The CLARITY Act aims to designate which U.S. agency will regulate cryptocurrency, a decision that could open the floodgates for institutional investments. Since June 1, the bill has been stalled on the Senate’s agenda without any progress toward a vote.

FM Intelligence projects Bitcoin could reach between $135,000 and $200,000 within the next year, but assigns only a 25% chance to the upper range, contingent on the bill passing before the November midterm elections. More conservative estimates from the same research suggest Bitcoin will trade between $95,000 and $130,000 if the bill does not pass.

At present, Bitcoin trades around $64,671, holding a market cap near $1.29 trillion. To hit $200,000, it would need to triple its current value and surpass its previous high of $126,080, which was set in October 2025.

The real impact of the CLARITY Act lies not in the legislation itself, but in what it would enable: increased inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, a rise in corporate treasury holdings, expanded banking services around Bitcoin, and a reduction of regulatory uncertainty. Together, these factors could dramatically reduce the current risk discount applied to Bitcoin’s price.

Sentiment shifted positively after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Congress was close to finalizing the bill, with Bitcoin spiking nearly 15% above its early July low, approaching $67,000. Forbes quoted hedge fund manager CK Zheng, who expects the bill’s passage to trigger a new bull market driven by institutional fear of missing out.

Yet, Wall Street remains cautious. Citigroup has downgraded its 12-month Bitcoin price target three times this year, most recently lowering it to $82,000 due to legislative delays rather than Bitcoin’s fundamentals. Their macro and DeFi strategist, Alex Saunders, highlighted regulatory gridlock as the key factor holding back Bitcoin’s rally. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered maintains a more optimistic but modest target of $100,000 by year-end.

Seven significant challenges now stand in the way of the CLARITY Act’s progress through the Senate, making its passage far from guaranteed. These roadblocks contribute to the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s trajectory and highlight how intertwined the cryptocurrency’s future remains with U.S. regulatory decisions.