Analysts Put the Bitcoin Bear Market at 80% Complete, With $63K as the Line in the Sand

As of late July, The DeFi Report's latest Bitcoin assessment puts 287 days, roughly 9.5 months, of bear market behind us, and analysts believe that covers about 80% of the full downturn based on historical cycle averages of one year.

Three separate corrections of more than 30% have already hit during this cycle. Analysts at the firm point to two distinct types of investor pain: the panic selling that follows sharp drops, and a quieter "time-based erosion" that grinds down holders when prices flatline for weeks.

Investors who bought Bitcoin at peak prices have already moved 52% of their holdings to longer-term buyers. The cohort that entered between $92,000 and $108,000 has been unusually stubborn, offloading only 18% so far, though the firm expects that figure could reach 20% to 30% if the stagnation continues.

The DeFi Report pegs Bitcoin's fair value at $65,000. In the 2022 bear market, BTC traded below or near that level for 107 days. This cycle has logged only 47 such days. Total market cap has fallen 5.8%, a fraction of the 19% drawdowns seen in previous cycles, which analysts credit partly to the maturation of the market and the stabilizing effect of spot ETFs, a dynamic Bitcoin-linked equities have also reflected lately.

Despite the relatively contained damage, analysts still put the odds of Bitcoin printing a new low at 65%.

Two price levels dominate the firm's outlook. The $63,000 mark is the primary support BTC needs to hold. The $70,000 to $73,000 band is the resistance zone that must be cleared before anyone can seriously call a bull market resumption.

Barring a systemic sector shock, The DeFi Report expects BTC to carve out a time-sensitive bottom somewhere in the $60,000 to $70,000 corridor. A sharper external blow, though, could push the price into what the firm calls a "deep value zone" between $50,000 and $55,000.

The report also flags broader macro threats, including rising oil prices, as potential catalysts that could accelerate the downside scenario. With crypto already sensitive to moves in traditional markets, any fresh macro shock would test those support levels fast.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; always do your own research before making investment decisions.