By August 5, Senate leaders must secure 16 signatures to file a cloture petition that could trigger a vote on August 7 to move forward with the 616-page CLARITY Act. Without this procedural step, the bill’s chances of passing before the August 10 recess slip away.
Despite expectations, the Senate calendar released on August 1 showed no scheduled actions on the CLARITY Act. No cloture motion had been filed by July 31, and no official vehicle had been identified for the bill's consideration. Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed hope that Majority Leader John Thune intends to find time for the legislation, but no confirmation has emerged.
Seven Democratic negotiators criticized the Republican draft for lacking sufficient safeguards on ethics, consumer protection, and national security. These unresolved issues have stalled consensus, pushing Polymarket odds for 2026 passage down from above 80% in February to about 30% by late July. Missing the August window would leave a tighter September session overshadowed by budget deadlines and the midterm election cycle, making passage even less likely.
