As Bitcoin trades around $62,600, roughly half of its all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025, market participants are closely observing two on-chain indicators that suggest the bear market's bottom may be nearing. Analyst PositiveCrypto remarked on X, stating, "The Puell Multiple currently shows daily miner revenue well below its 365-day average, a setup that has always appeared at late bear market lows. Painful for miners as margins compress, but historically these are levels where BTC returns are greatest from."
The Puell Multiple, which assesses miners' revenue against its annual average, indicates that miners are experiencing significant pressure. Currently, this multiple hovers just above the critical threshold of 0.5, a level that historically marks cyclical lows in Bitcoin's price. Data from Glassnode reveals that this metric has visited below this threshold during previous bear markets in 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022. Despite approaching this historical zone, the multiple has yet to decisively enter it. In early 2023, a similar reading marked the moment miners ceased selling, allowing the market to stabilize.
In parallel, the long-term holder supply of Bitcoin has reached a record 16.75 million BTC as of July 11, according to Galaxy Research. This figure constitutes nearly 84% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, suggesting consistent accumulation amidst a declining price. Historical patterns show that during previous cycles, long-term holder supply increased as the bear market progressed, only to continue rising until the final bottom was established. Recent trends indicate that long-term holders returned to net buying in early July.
Both the declining Puell Multiple and rising long-term holder supply paint a similar narrative: solid accumulation by long-term investors amidst market weakness. However, the capitulation that typically signals the end of Bitcoin bear markets has not yet occurred. A significant drop in the Puell Multiple below 0.5, in conjunction with increasing long-term holder supply, could suggest a forthcoming market bottom.
This material is informational and not financial advice.
