WTI Drops Below $68 as Saudi Exports Rebound; BTC and Gold Climb

WTI crude fell below $68 per barrel for the first time in 125 days on Thursday as recovering Saudi Arabian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz erased the bulk of the war premium built up during the US-Iran conflict. At the same time, Bitcoin rose more than 5% to approximately $61,649, and gold extended its rally to around $4,119, with an intraday push toward $4,140.

Saudi Arabia is now shipping its highest crude volumes through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran truce reopened the waterway. Four supertankers operated by national carrier Bahri exited the Gulf carrying roughly 8 million barrels combined, signaling a sharp acceleration in export flows. During the height of the conflict, Saudi exports had dropped to approximately 4 million barrels per day, down from more than 7 million barrels per day recorded in February. Exports are now approaching the pre-war pace of 6.3 million barrels per day, according to Argus data.

While the strait was closed, Riyadh maintained roughly half of its export volumes by rerouting cargoes through Red Sea ports. Saudi Aramco has since resumed loadings at Ras Tanura — the world's largest oil terminal — following a near four-month halt. Shipping analytics firm Kpler estimates that strait traffic has recovered to approximately 40 vessel crossings per day, and neighboring UAE flows have already returned to pre-war levels.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy supply, handling around 20% of seaborne oil trade according to the US Energy Information Administration. As a result, WTI now trades below the level it held when US strikes on Iran first began in late February. Oil had peaked above $110 per barrel at the height of the conflict. The 60-day truce roadmap remains interim, however, and marine insurers continue to apply caution to Gulf shipping routes.

Bitcoin's advance reflects a broader shift in market sentiment. Cheaper energy reduces mining costs and cools inflation expectations, while fading geopolitical risk is reviving appetite for risk assets. Analysts noted that selling pressure on Bitcoin had already been easing before the truce was announced. Equities are showing a parallel trend, with nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks carrying record Buy ratings as tensions recede.

Gold's continued strength points to persistent hedging demand despite the improvement in geopolitical conditions. The metal remains up more than 22% over the past year and sits well below its January record above $5,500. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly highlighted on July 2 that the AI investment boom has markets questioning whether it could prove inflationary, even as productivity gains from the technology could rise exponentially. That uncertainty underpins gold's ongoing appeal as both an inflation hedge and a geopolitical risk buffer.

The overall market picture reflects a split in investor positioning: participants appear to be pricing in a durable recovery in oil supply while simultaneously maintaining hedges against the fragility of the current truce and residual macroeconomic uncertainty.