“The stock is under significant pressure as we approach two critical events,” said one market analyst following SpaceX’s 3.4% drop to $108 on July 31. This marks the lowest close since the company’s mid-June IPO and intensifies worries about a further slide below $100 as the first post-IPO earnings report looms along with a massive insider share unlock.
Since hitting $171 at its IPO debut on July 1, SpaceX’s shares have shed about 36%. The decline from the all-time high of $225 just two weeks after the IPO signals volatility in a stock facing an influx of 911.5 million insider shares becoming available for sale on August 6. This supply increase, paired with earnings expected on August 4, creates a volatile setup where investors must balance operating results against a potentially dilutive impact.
Wall Street forecasts revenue between $6.72 billion and $6.9 billion, but underperformance could accelerate the downward momentum in a stock that has yet to find solid footing. Investors will be paying close attention to guidance around Starlink, launch operations, and the emerging data-center segment. Alongside fundamental factors, heavy short selling amounting to around 39% of freely tradable shares has amplified the selling pressure, making the stock vulnerable to further declines. However, a surprisingly strong earnings beat might trigger a rapid squeeze as shorts exit to cover positions.
Despite the challenges, some remain optimistic. Bernstein has kept its outperform rating with a $239 price target, emphasizing SpaceX’s technical progress, including its recent 13th Starship test flight. For now, the stock's immediate support level sits near $107.10 while resistance hovers above $121, making the days ahead highly critical for traders weighing risk and reward.
This content is for informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.
