The probability of the Clarity Act becoming law this year surged to 43% on Polymarket, up from a record low of 32% last Friday, following unverified reports that President Trump agreed to a contentious ethics provision.
The so-called ethics deal had stalled negotiations on the bill, which is designed to establish the first federal regulatory framework for digital assets and allocate oversight responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. According to a CoinDesk source, Democrats have yet to review the bill's text and it has not been publicly released. Neither the White House nor involved senators have issued statements.
Ethics Provision and Market Reaction
The disagreement centers on limitations for political figures profiting from cryptocurrency while holding office, intensified by Trump’s memecoin ventures and his family’s substantial stake in World Liberty Financial. Financial disclosures last month revealed millions in earnings for Trump from this stake.
The provision was reportedly addressed in a July 16 meeting including Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt. The Senate has until early August to vote on the measure.
Following these developments, major cryptocurrencies showed gains. Bitcoin traded near $66,300, increasing approximately 3% within 24 hours. Ethereum and XRP both rose about 4%, although traders largely credited the broader rally to gains in AI and semiconductor sectors.
The Clarity Act market movement coincides with extended strength in crypto following recent legislative progress. For additional context, see related coverage on Bitcoin surpassing $65,000 amid Senate progress on Clarity Act.
This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
