Polymarket’s prediction market now values the chance of Hamas disarming by the end of 2026 at 61%. This sharp rise in probability follows the announcement of a US-brokered peace agreement, signaling traders’ confidence in a historic shift.
Trump’s Peace Deal Shakes Market Expectations
On July 30, Donald Trump revealed that a US-led Board of Peace had secured a deal with Hamas and other Gaza factions, describing it as a "historic milestone." The agreement includes a detailed 15-point plan focusing on weapons decommissioning, transferring power to a technocratic National Committee, and implementing international oversight to ensure compliance.
While Hamas has conditionally accepted the deal, linking disarmament to Israeli withdrawals and prior ceasefire terms from October 2025, Israel has remained silent. The market’s optimism hinges on Hamas making a credible and public commitment to disarm by December 31, 2026, not necessarily the completion of disarmament.
What the Polymarket Data Tells Us
Since launching on June 30 on the Polygon blockchain, this prediction market has amassed nearly $3 million in volume. Nearly $900,000 has been wagered specifically on Hamas committing to disarm by year-end. This surge reflects growing geopolitical interest rather than traditional crypto speculation, showing the platform’s reach beyond its DeFi beginnings.
Every trade on Polymarket is transparent and verifiable, condensing a complex peace roadmap into a simple yes-or-no bet on Hamas’s commitment. The market resolves based on an official statement from Hamas, making it a unique real-time barometer of political developments.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
