Bitcoin is trading at roughly half of its late-2025 peak while traditional assets like equities and gold remain near record highs. This divergence is at the core of a new report from Onramp, which argues that the current 50% drawdown in bitcoin is the shallowest on record and presents a strategic opportunity for spot bitcoin investment.
Key Findings from Onramp’s "Back to Basics" Report
Released in July 2026, the report emphasizes the uniqueness of this correction compared to prior bitcoin cycles. Historically, peak-to-trough declines were much steeper: 93% in 2011, 85% between 2013 and 2015, 83% from 2017 to 2018, and 77% from 2021 to 2022. Each of those cycles ended with bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. In contrast, the current decline of approximately 50% is significantly less severe.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins remains verifiable by any participant, distinguishing it from paper bitcoin instruments such as ETFs, exchange balances, and structured products that carry counterparty risks. Onramp stresses that direct ownership eliminates these risks.
The report also highlights that the Fear and Greed Index had dropped to 22 at the time of writing, indicating extreme fear among investors, which traditionally signals potential accumulation points.
Onramp recommends dollar cost averaging into spot bitcoin rather than attempting to time the market. Custody of holdings should be under the direct control of owners to mitigate counterparty risks.
Onramp’s Custody Platform and Market Position
Onramp has raised $12.5 million to expand its multi-institution custody platform, which integrates bitcoin, cash, and gold into a unified account structure. The platform employs a 2-of-3 key arrangement across independent institutions, ensuring that no single party can move coins alone and no single failure can cause loss.
The company’s Chief Strategy Officer Brian Cubellis noted in the report that while bitcoin’s price has changed, its fundamentals remain intact.
This stance contrasts with the broader market where the S&P 500 trades within 1% of its all-time high, the Nasdaq is about 4% below its peak, and gold is roughly 24% shy of its record, according to Onramp’s data.
