Nouriel Roubini forecasts that artificial intelligence will accelerate US economic growth to 4% by 2030 but warns it may also cause widespread job losses requiring large-scale government redistribution. The economist, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, presented this outlook in a November 2025 report from Hudson Bay Capital.
Roubini expects AI to boost productivity significantly, potentially doubling the current US growth rate of around 2% by the end of the decade. However, he cautions that this growth will disproportionately benefit the top income earners, while millions of workers could face unemployment due to automation in both blue-collar and white-collar sectors.
Universal Basic Income as a Policy Response
Addressing the displacement of workers, Roubini advocates for expanding and eventually consolidating existing welfare programs into a universal basic income (UBI) system. He envisions transforming fragmented benefits like food stamps, unemployment insurance, and means-tested aid into a single monthly payment for all citizens, a process he believes will unfold gradually over several decades.
At a Bloomberg event, Roubini emphasized that the current patchwork of social safety nets is insufficient to handle the scale of job disruption anticipated from AI advancements. His proposal involves a full redistribution model to maintain social stability amid rapid technological change.
