Kioxia Holdings Corporation's stock collapsed 45% over the past month, yet Wall Street analysts continue to predict the shares could rise more than 100% from current levels. The Japanese chipmaker’s shares hit a low of ¥52,110 last Friday before recovering slightly to ¥55,860 by Tuesday, July 21, still down roughly 42% for the month.
Analysts Maintain Bullish Targets Amid Sharp Selloff
Despite the steep decline, Kazuyoshi Saito, senior analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities, keeps a price target of ¥132,000, citing unchanged company fundamentals and sustained AI-driven demand. Similarly, Nomura Securities raised its target last week from ¥115,000 to ¥126,000, and Huaxing Research set a target above ¥100,000. The consensus price target around ¥121,959 suggests an upside of about 118% from the recent close.
Kioxia’s shares had surged to a record ¥111,250 on June 22, briefly becoming Japan’s largest company by market capitalization, surpassing Toyota. The rapid peak was followed by a drastic correction erasing most gains for the year.
Market Skepticism and Volatility in Semiconductor Stocks
Many market participants see the fall as a correction after an extended rally, with some questioning the timing of renewed investor enthusiasm. Ikio Mitsuishi, portfolio manager at Aizu Securities, expects Kioxia to remain subdued until late August, as investors may prefer lower volatility or cheaper stocks.
This turbulence is not isolated. Other Asian chipmakers, such as SK Hynix listed on Nasdaq, have experienced similar swings with sharp intraday gains followed by significant declines. The chip industry in Japan has seen a selloff wiping out trillions of yen in market value this month.
The key challenge ahead for Kioxia’s bulls will be whether the semiconductor sector’s volatility eases before the upcoming earnings season.
Market reaction showed a nearly 9% intraday recovery on July 21, insufficient to reverse the month-long downtrend.
