Traders on prediction platform Kalshi assign only a 25% probability that Coinbase's second-quarter trading volume surpassed $170 billion, suggesting expectations for a decline below Wall Street forecasts. The cryptocurrency exchange's quarterly results are due on July 30, with traders anticipating a third consecutive drop in volume driven, in part, by Bitcoin's roughly 12% price fall during the period.
Prediction Market Insights and Volume Trends
Kalshi and Polymarket have seen substantial growth, with combined trading volume reaching $24 billion in April 2026, nearly five times higher than the previous year. Kalshi gained 3 million users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which saw total tournament volume hit $12 billion. Despite Polymarket's dominance in political betting, it is currently under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Market sentiment on Kalshi indicates a 41% chance that Coinbase's quarterly volume exceeds $160 billion, while a 99% probability exists that it stays above $150 billion, indicating bettors do not foresee a complete collapse. These contracts settle based on data from Fiscal.ai, an investment research platform.
According to FactSet, the likelihood of Coinbase's volume exceeding $170 billion is below Wall Street's average forecast of $168.5 billion. The expected volume figure would mark the lowest since Q3 2024 if it falls below $200 billion.
Coinbase's stock performance mirrors this trend, declining over 55% since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 amid broader cryptocurrency market pressures.
