Market data shows only an 11.5% chance that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by August 31, reflecting ongoing military escalations.
Iran has stepped up attacks on vessels in the Omani part of the strait, citing threats from enemy military transports. This is part of the wider US-Iran conflict, which intensified earlier this year after air strikes by the US and Israel targeted Iranian assets.
The Iranian Expediency Council's recent comments confirm these operations aim to strengthen Tehran's control over this key maritime route. Iran also challenges alternative shipping corridors advocated by the US, adding complexity to regional geopolitics.
Key factors to monitor include any announcements from Iran or the US on peace talks or further military actions, as well as statements from leaders such as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or former US President Donald Trump. Maritime traffic patterns and oil price movements will also shed light on the evolving situation.
