Has Bitcoin Truly Reached Its Cycle Low?

Bitcoin [BTC] recorded a 3.4% decline over the past 24 hours, accompanied by $104.38 million in total liquidations. The overwhelming majority of those liquidations — $91.66 million — came from long positions that were forcibly closed as BTC continued sliding below the $60,000 level.

Crypto influencer CryptoRover took to X to share a notable technical observation. According to his chart analysis, Bitcoin is currently forming a descending triangle pattern strikingly similar to the one it traced during the 2021–2022 bear market. Even the RSI indicator has followed a comparable trajectory. The same structure now appears to be repeating in the 2025–2026 timeframe, suggesting the market may need additional time to establish a genuine bottom before any decisive breakout above the triangle's resistance can occur.

If historical cycles hold true, a meaningful bullish reversal could begin to take shape in Q4 2026. However, analysts note that while whale accumulation is currently underway, the pace remains insufficient to signal an imminent market turnaround.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. brought attention to another key metric: the Bitcoin long-term holder MVRV, which has compressed to a reading of 1.24. This figure represents the ratio between the current market value of coins held by long-term investors and their average acquisition cost. At 1.24, this is the lowest reading recorded in three years and indicates that the market is moving closer to historically significant cycle lows. For a confirmed bottom signal, the MVRV would need to drop into what analysts refer to as the 'Very Low' green capitulation zone.

Furthermore, the average cost basis for long-term holders currently sits at $48,400. Should Bitcoin's price fall beneath this threshold, the majority of this cohort would find themselves holding at a loss — a development that would point toward capitulation even among the most committed long-term participants.

Benjamin Cohen, Founder and CEO of Into The CryptoVerse, contributed another perspective by analyzing the 200-week moving average. His data shows that the ongoing 4-year market cycle remains on schedule. Notably, both June 2022 and June 2026 saw Bitcoin breach this long-term moving average to the downside, creating a remarkable symmetry between the two cycles.

Adding to the cautious outlook, Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, flagged the rising long/short ratio in the derivatives market as a significant concern. More traders are currently positioned long than short, and according to Wedson, 'this excessive long exposure is one of the main reasons behind the recent selloffs.' The implication is clear: as seen during the long liquidation cascade in the first week of June, another long squeeze could materialize in the near term.

In summary, Bitcoin has broken below the 200-week moving average and may face further downside pressure in the months ahead. While several on-chain and technical indicators are approaching historically recognized bottom conditions, the market has not yet reached the full capitulation levels seen in previous cycles. Investors and traders should exercise caution while monitoring these key signals closely.