Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude oil prices may surge to $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist through the fourth quarter of 2026. This forecast follows the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions, which has already pushed Brent prices to $91 a barrel amid nearly five months of conflict in the region.
Supply Risks from Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, making any prolonged disruption a serious threat to supply stability. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel in response to these heightened risks, signaling concerns about sustained upward pressure on oil markets. Market data also shows an increased probability that WTI crude will hit $90 in July, with a 45.1% likelihood according to current pricing.
Market and Geopolitical Factors to Monitor
The US president's recent threat has intensified concerns over oil supply interruptions. Market participants are closely watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz as ongoing tensions could further elevate prices. Key organizations such as OPEC+ and the International Energy Agency are likely to influence market dynamics through production changes or strategic reserves releases. Diplomatic interactions between the US and Iran will remain critical to shifting market expectations.
This article provides information only and does not constitute financial advice.
