Bitcoin recently surpassed the $66,000 mark, triggering technical signals that historically align with macro market bottoms, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez. These indicators suggest the possibility that Bitcoin's current price floor may represent a long-term bottom rather than a local one.
Technical Signals Point to Macro Bottom
Martinez identified three key signs that have appeared at previous cycle lows: the monthly RSI dropping to approximately 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) falling to around -71, and Bitcoin trading near its 50-month moving average. These patterns emerged before substantial rallies in 2015, early 2019, and late 2022, with gains ranging from 675% to over 8,300%. Bitcoin's correction to $58,000 last month triggered the same setup again.
Liquidity Concerns May Limit Upside Potential
Despite the bullish price action, liquidity remains a critical obstacle. Stablecoin dominance has risen near 13%, narrowing the gap with Ethereum's 10%+ dominance, but the stablecoin market cap has decreased by more than $10 billion over the past month. On-chain data reveals that stablecoins have been leaving exchanges for 35 consecutive days, while Bitcoin accumulation in spot markets has yet to increase significantly.
This divergence between price and liquidity raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's rally. Without fresh capital inflows, the breakout above $66,000 might struggle to reach the $70,000 target.
