Gold prices remained steady above $4,000 per ounce on Monday, trading between $4,000 and $4,015. The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran continue to disrupt commodity markets, pushing oil prices higher and influencing investor behavior.

The conflict has escalated beyond mere diplomatic exchanges. Naval blockades and militia attacks linked to the dispute have led to increased oil prices and revived worries about inflation. These developments have caused markets to assign roughly an 80% chance to a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.

Earlier in 2026, gold hit an all-time peak above $5,600 per ounce, fueled by a combination of geopolitical fears and inflation concerns. Since then, prices corrected downward to around $4,000, where the metal currently finds support.

Bitcoin and Gold Diverge

Bitcoin and gold have moved in opposite directions recently. For example, in March 2026, Bitcoin rose approximately 3.5% while spot gold prices dropped nearly 5%, reflecting differing investor responses to market conditions.

Growth of Tokenized Gold

Tokenized gold products like PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) have quietly built a combined market capitalization exceeding $3 billion. Each token is fully backed by physical gold stored in secure vaults and represents a specific amount of audited, allocated gold. Throughout the current geopolitical turmoil, these tokens have closely tracked spot gold prices.

Despite this growth, the tokenized gold market remains a small fraction of the broader gold ecosystem, which includes physical bars, ETFs, futures, and jewelry valued in the trillions.

Interest Rates and Geopolitical Premium

Historically, higher real interest rates tend to pressure gold since they raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December complicates the outlook. However, the geopolitical risk premium currently priced into gold appears to offset some of this pressure, at least temporarily.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.