Citi Cuts BTC and ETH Price Targets After Abandoning ETF Inflow Assumptions

Citi has revised its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether sharply downward, reducing its bitcoin base-case forecast to $82,000 from $112,000 and its ether target to $2,240 from $3,175. The bank simultaneously abandoned its earlier expectations for net positive ETF inflows over the next year, now projecting zero net flows — a significant shift from prior assumptions tied to regulatory progress in the United States.

Analyst Alex Saunders outlined the rationale in a Tuesday report: «The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12m.» At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $58,400 and ether around $1,570.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETF demand has deteriorated markedly in recent months. The funds recorded a record $4 billion in net outflows in June — the largest monthly withdrawal since their January 2024 launch — following a 13-day consecutive redemption streak that pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time.

The revision represents a reversal of Citi's prior thesis, which had assumed that passage of U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would draw financial advisors and traditional institutional investors into the market. The bank now considers that legislative timeline delayed indefinitely, removing what it had treated as a primary demand catalyst.

Saunders identified ETF flows as the dominant variable driving crypto prices. Additional headwinds include concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies may become net sellers of bitcoin. Recent corporate actions by Strategy, even involving comparatively modest BTC sales, reinforced those fears among market participants.

Both bitcoin and ether remain below their 200-day moving averages. Speculative capital, according to the report, has rotated toward artificial intelligence-related investments, further reducing marginal crypto demand.

Citi's scenario analysis spans three cases. In the bull scenario, stronger retail and institutional adoption pushes bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. The bear scenario — premised on recessionary macro conditions and continued ETF outflows — implies bitcoin falling to $53,000 and ether to $1,094. The base case assumes flat ETF flows throughout the forecast period.

The bank's equity strategists have independently grown more constructive on U.S. stocks, which provides some indirect support to crypto assets through their equity correlation. However, Citi's report concluded that positive macro conditions alone are insufficient to offset the drag from weakening investor flows.

Despite the downgrade, the bank acknowledged that ETF flows remain the single most consequential variable in its valuation framework. Any material reversal in institutional or retail demand, or an unexpected breakthrough in U.S. crypto legislation, could alter the outlook rapidly.