Solana Trades 74% Below Peak as Network Activity Nears All-Time Highs
SOL trades near $77, some 74% below its all-time high, while Solana network activity approaches yearly peaks. July is shaping up as a decisive month, with $80 serving as the key price threshold.
Solana's native token SOL is changing hands near $77 following a 16% weekly rebound, yet the asset remains approximately 74% below its record high of $293, a level last seen in late 2024. On-chain metrics are simultaneously approaching yearly peaks, creating a sharp divergence between network fundamentals and token price performance heading into July.
Active addresses on the Solana network are retesting yearly highs just below 7 million, according to data from Glassnode. Transactions per second, measured on a seven-day rolling average, are trending toward 1,100 — a figure that would represent a new all-time high for network throughput. Despite these readings, the token price is at its lowest point since December 2023.
A significant portion of the recent surge in on-chain activity is attributed to meme coin launchpads and speculative airdrop campaigns operating on the Solana blockchain. Analysts note that if usage sustains above current levels, it would reinforce the fundamental argument for a price recovery. For now, the gap between network health and market price remains the defining feature of SOL's current setup.
On the weekly chart, SOL is defending the long-term 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $73, which represents the last significant support before deeper downside becomes available. The first notable resistance stands at the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $120, a target that would require a gain of more than 55% from current prices. Weekly trading volume continues to contract, a pattern historically associated with accumulation phases, though the broader price structure remains bearish.
The daily chart shows early signs of a potential base forming. SOL broke down from an ascending channel in June and reached its measured downside target near $63 before rebounding. Price is now retesting resistance just below $80. The Relative Strength Index has moved toward 60, reflecting growing buying momentum on the shorter timeframe.
A daily close above $80 would open the path toward $100 and subsequently $120. A failure to hold the $73 level would re-expose the $63 demand zone, which previously acted as a bounce point. Recent leverage liquidations across the broader crypto market highlight how fragile overall sentiment remains.
The Alpenglow consensus upgrade, scheduled for potential activation in the third quarter, is identified as a possible positive catalyst for the network. On the downside, continued ETF outflows and broader market weakness represent the primary risks. July is set to be a pivotal month for Solana, with the $80 level acting as the immediate line of demarcation between a continued recovery and renewed selling pressure.
