Cantor Fitzgerald Sees Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Around Late October

Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald has published a research note concluding that bitcoin's current bear market is likely in its final stage, with a potential cycle bottom expected around late October 2026, based on historical trading patterns across previous BTC market cycles.

Analysts led by Gareth Gacetta wrote in the Tuesday report: «Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback.» The bank noted that as of June 10, bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and had declined approximately 51% from that high. Across the three preceding market cycles, BTC reached its bottom an average of 384 days after peaking — a timeline that, if repeated, would place the current trough near late October.

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $59,500 at the time of publication, with the broader market continuing to reflect stress from persistent ETF outflows, elevated interest rates and reduced risk appetite. The bank cautioned that historical cycle analysis is not a precise forecasting instrument given ongoing macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical uncertainties, though it noted that crypto's reflexive nature can make historical patterns self-reinforcing.

Crypto markets have faced sustained pressure in recent months. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its late-2025 peak, with a sharp selloff in June accelerating the decline. Ether and most major altcoins have underperformed bitcoin during the downturn, though sectors including decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenization have shown relative resilience.

With the market approaching what the bank views as a potential inflection point, the report advised investors to reorient from speculative positions toward networks capable of durable value accrual. Cantor argued that adoption growth across stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, onchain credit and DeFi does not automatically translate into token value — long-term winners must convert usage into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand.

Cantor identified Hyperliquid as the clearest current example of fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and token burns. Bitcoin was cited as the benchmark monetary asset, and Ethereum as the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance. Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash were noted as having differentiated strengths but still needing to demonstrate that ecosystem growth can produce durable token demand.

The bank also spotlighted digital asset treasury companies as an underappreciated investment category. It argued that leading firms in this space are transitioning from passive crypto holders into active operators generating yield, building infrastructure and providing institutional access to digital assets.

Cantor initiated coverage of two digital asset treasury companies: Forward Industries (FWDI), with an overweight rating and a price target of $7.90, and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH), also rated overweight with a price target of $0.90.