Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani raised Robinhood’s price target from $130 to $160, attributing the upgrade primarily to the soaring potential of prediction markets rather than crypto trading. Robinhood’s Rothera platform is expected to generate $1.7 billion in prediction markets revenue by 2028, a figure that could surpass earnings from crypto activities. "This shift reflects a significant opportunity emerging at the intersection of trading and event-based contracts," Chhugani noted.
Rothera, launched on January 20, 2026, is a CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange developed through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Robinhood acquired a 90% stake in MIAXdx to obtain the required regulatory framework, enabling it to offer event contracts to US customers. The platform plans to use its broad retail user base and lower fees to capture market share, replicating its successful strategy from stock trading.
Bernstein forecasts prediction markets trading volume will climb from $12 billion in 2025 to $16 billion in 2026, boosted by global events like the FIFA World Cup. Revenue from this segment is projected to rise from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, marking a 286% year-over-year increase. Such rapid growth could push prediction markets to become Robinhood’s primary revenue stream, outpacing crypto trading within a few years.
Alongside Rothera, the launch of Robinhood Chain on July 1, 2026, adds another dimension to the firm's growth prospects. The Arbitrum-based Layer 2 blockchain supports tokenized assets and integrates with decentralized finance protocols, including partnerships with Uniswap and Pleiades. This initiative positions Robinhood as a bridge between conventional retail brokerage and the DeFi space, signaling ambitions beyond a closed ecosystem.
This material is informational and does not constitute financial advice.
