Bernstein has revised its price target for ASML Holding N.V. to €2,300, a significant increase from the previous target of €1,700, while maintaining an 'outperform' rating. This represents a 35% jump in the target price and reflects the firm's bullish outlook on ASML's potential.
AI-Driven Growth in Chip Manufacturing
The upgrade is attributed to anticipated growth in AI-led advancements within advanced logic and DRAM chip manufacturing. Bernstein predicts that ASML's Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) revenue will achieve an impressive compound annual growth rate of 30%, reaching €42.7 billion by the year 2030.
Overall Revenue Projections
Bernstein has also raised its overall revenue estimates for ASML, projecting total income to reach €80 billion by 2030. This estimation indicates a 24% increase over current consensus projections. Bernstein's analysis reveals that ASML's earnings growth has been substantial, supporting the stock's performance which has more than doubled over the past year.
Increased Shipment Forecasts
The firm has updated its forecasts for ASML's EUV systems, raising the 2027 shipment estimate to 91 units from 86 and the 2028 forecast to 113 units from 87. Bernstein described these changes as reflective of an 'unprecedented AI-driven expansion.'
Competing Semiconductor Companies
Bernstein has also increased price targets for several other semiconductor companies, forecasting TSMC's target price to rise to $430 from $351, and providing similar upgrades for Micron, Intel, Samsung, and SK Hynix. In the competitive landscape, SK Hynix and Samsung are expected to be the first to adopt High-NA EUV technology in 2027 for DRAM production, followed by Intel in 2028, and TSMC in 2030.
As Bernstein highlights, the lithography intensity, which constitutes a large portion of the total manufacturing cost, is projected to increase from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, primarily driven by the advancements in DRAM technology.
