Argentina's probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup has risen to 10%, surpassing England's 12.5% chance, according to Kalshi. As both teams gear up for the semi-final match, Argentina's improved standings reflect a shift in market sentiment, positioning them as a stronger contender.
Currently, England is slightly favored to win the upcoming clash; however, the odds change could significantly influence future predictions. The semi-final showdown on July 15 will be key, with all eyes on Lionel Messi’s performance and strategic moves by Argentina's coach, Lionel Scaloni. If Argentina succeeds in this match, their odds of clinching the tournament could increase further, challenging the previous market dynamics.
Conversely, if England emerges victorious, it may reverse the trend favoring Argentina. The unfolding events in this semi-final will be crucial for market participants who are closely monitoring the situation.
