Analysts Forecast Turbulent Markets for Bitcoin and Equities in H2 2026

Crypto and equity markets are headed into a volatile second half of 2026, driven by diverging AI impacts, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and structural shifts in how bitcoin trades, according to analysts interviewed by CoinDesk.

Bitcoin has dropped 46% to $58,300, while technology stocks climbed to record highs on the back of AI enthusiasm — a contrast that has become one of the defining market narratives of the year. Analysts say the divergence raises a harder question for the second half: which companies and assets will genuinely benefit from artificial intelligence, and which face disruption.

Former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio and Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors argues that AI is no longer lifting the technology sector broadly. Instead, it is drawing a sharp line between companies building AI infrastructure and businesses whose products or services are vulnerable to displacement by large language models and AI agents. 'The market is being cleaved in two,' Connors told CoinDesk.

Connors pointed to a recent selloff in Accenture as evidence that investors are reassessing consulting firms as generative AI automates more knowledge work. He also flagged weakness in software companies including Autodesk and Intuit, suggesting that pressure on traditional software firms is likely to continue.

On the macro side, Connors cited rising correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, based on Kestrel data, as a signal that investors are reacting more to policy developments than to company-specific fundamentals. He warned that uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing would keep markets turbulent before conditions stabilize. 'The rest of the year is going to be messy,' he said.

Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, agrees that uncertainty remains elevated but argues that market mechanics — not narratives — are the key factor being overlooked. Sullivan contends that the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional hedging activity in derivatives markets have fundamentally altered how bitcoin trades and weakened its historical correlations with broader macro indicators.

Sullivan also pushes back on the view that institutional capital from ETF inflows has ended bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. He maintains that the current decline fits within established historical patterns and that he is waiting for a clear bottoming formation before declaring the bear market complete. 'We are nearing the point of where it's so bearish it's bullish,' he said, framing the current environment as an asymmetric risk-reward setup for long-term investors.

Sullivan's base case puts bitcoin's bear-market bottom in the $54,000 to $58,000 range. He cites improving on-chain fundamentals and historically depressed investor sentiment as potential catalysts once the present period of macro uncertainty passes.

Both analysts see the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory as a central variable for the remainder of the year. Broader market correlations suggest that rate decisions and Treasury financing dynamics could amplify swings across both crypto and traditional asset classes through the end of 2026.