Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has raised alarms for Bitcoin (BTC) investors, suggesting that current market trends are echoing patterns seen in past bear markets. He emphasizes that history appears to be repeating itself, particularly referencing the downturn witnessed in 2018.

Cowen's analysis indicates that the trajectory of Bitcoin's price chart shows similarities to previous cycles. Specifically, he notes that significant lows were recorded in February in both 2018 and the current market landscape. Furthermore, higher lows in March and April also align with historical data, culminating in a local rally towards the 200-day moving average (MA) in May during both periods.

In an alarming parallel, Cowen points out that at the end of June and the beginning of July 2018, Bitcoin hit a low of $5,700 before recovering, while this year, the cryptocurrency tested a low around $57,000. The analyst states, "I keep telling myself that this pattern won’t continue, but the market stubbornly persists in playing this pattern." Such remarks underline his concern over the potential for further declines.

While Cowen anticipates a temporary relief rally in July, he cautions that these price increases may be short-lived. He notes that bear markets typically hit their final lows in the fourth quarter (Q4), suggesting this cycle could see a bottom reached as early as the end of September or October. Cowen assesses the likelihood of Bitcoin having already reached its absolute bottom at only 40 to 45 percent, indicating a higher probability of an additional downturn.

He speculates that Bitcoin could drop below its current realized price of approximately $53,000, with expectations of a potential decline to the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Cowen identifies an equilibrium price just below $40,000, where all on-chain indicators would reset and the bearish trend would effectively conclude. He believes that a drop to this level could significantly reshape investor sentiment and market dynamics.

This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.