XRP has lost nearly half its value in 2026, dropping 49%, but technical indicators and seasonal trends point to a possible significant rebound. The token currently trades at around $1.08 while being confined within a descending broadening wedge, a chart pattern linked to late-stage accumulation.
The Relative Strength Index has formed a bullish divergence, signaling exhaustion of selling pressure. Support remains firm at $1.05, a local bottom defended by buyers. Historical data reveals a seven-year streak of positive returns during Q3 for XRP, with no negative quarterly closes in this period.
July has provided a modest return of 4.19% so far, following a 22.1% drop in June. Past summers demonstrate XRP’s ability to recover sharply: a 47.6% rally occurred in July 2023, and a 35% increase was recorded in July 2025. The median Q3 return stands at 25.8%, underscoring the seasonal potential for gains after recent downward pressure.
To initiate a breakout and sustain upward momentum, XRP must surpass resistance between $1.12 and $1.18. Clearing this zone could open the path to targets in the $1.45 to $1.60 range, implying roughly 50% upside from current levels. Broader market conditions may temporarily limit immediate advances, but the setup suggests a strong medium-term rally if the breakout materializes.
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
