XRP Price Forecast for July 2026: What Lies Ahead?
XRP fell to $1.009 on June 26 — its closest brush with the $1 mark since November 2024. Analysts warn that bearish momentum could push the price toward $0.85 in July 2026.
XRP experienced a sharp decline on Friday, June 26, dropping to $1.009 — its closest approach to the critical $1.00 psychological threshold since November 2024. Despite the broader market weakness, XRP spot ETF inflows continued to register positive numbers, offering a rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy picture.
According to earlier reports from AMBCrypto, the ongoing spot ETF demand has been gradually tightening the available XRP supply. However, analysts noted that this supply squeeze alone may not be enough to generate immediate price gains, particularly under the current stressed market conditions. The absence of strong retail and institutional demand, combined with reduced speculative activity in recent months, paints a concerning picture heading into July.
From a technical standpoint, the daily XRP chart reveals an altcoin firmly entrenched in a long-term downtrend that stretches back to July 2025. Earlier this year, in February, bulls failed to hold the swing low of $1.61 established back in April 2025 — a breakdown that officially confirmed the ongoing bearish trend. A consolidation range had been forming for several months, but a fierce selloff at the end of May overwhelmed buyers. At the time of writing, XRP was hovering near the $1.05 local low, following a brief and unconvincing bounce toward $1.30.
Looking at derivatives data from CryptoQuant, Open Interest has remained relatively stable at approximately 400 million XRP over recent months. The Open Interest Turnover Ratio has similarly held steady near 0.71. The lack of dramatic spikes in either metric suggests that speculative activity in the derivatives market has cooled considerably. Analyst Arab Chain highlighted that traders should watch for sudden surges in OI and the turnover ratio as early warning signals of incoming volatility.
The 4-hour chart reinforces the bearish narrative. XRP's mid-June recovery to $1.2935 turned out to be nothing more than a pullback — specifically, a retest of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level sitting at $1.2985. That bounce was swiftly met with selling pressure, and XRP now appears poised to extend its downside move toward key targets at $0.975 and $0.854.
As July unfolds, the probability of XRP dropping below the $1 mark looks increasingly high. The technical structure, the subdued speculative climate, and the lack of fresh demand catalysts all point in the same direction. While the derivatives market may be calmer than in previous periods, traders are advised to remain vigilant — conditions can shift quickly, and any spike in volatility could accelerate the move in either direction.
In summary, based on current market dynamics and technical indicators, XRP's bearish momentum remains intact. A price decline toward the $0.85 level during July 2026 appears to be the most probable scenario unless a significant catalyst emerges to reverse the trend.
