XRP Climbs 2% but On-Chain and Futures Data Point to Weakening Support
XRP gained roughly 2% to trade near $1.05 on July 2, but long-term holder buying dropped 11%, open interest fell 11%, and RSI remained below 50, raising questions about the durability of the move.
XRP traded near $1.05 on July 2, posting a roughly 2% gain, but multiple indicators — including a significant pullback in long-term holder activity, declining open interest, and muted momentum — suggest the rally lacks a solid foundation.
Long-term holders reduced their net buying by approximately 11%, with Glassnode's HODLer Net Position Change metric dropping from around 239.3 million XRP on June 30 to 213.6 million XRP on July 1. The decline occurred even as price moved higher, indicating that the most conviction-driven segment of the market was not participating in the upside move.
Futures market activity echoed the same caution. XRP open interest fell roughly 11%, declining from $865.52 million recorded on June 23 to $766.32 million at the time of reporting, according to Santiment data. The XRP funding rate remained negative throughout, suggesting traders were not crowding into long positions — a condition that limits the likelihood of a sharp cascading selloff but also removes fuel for sustained upward momentum.
Trading volume data adds another layer of concern. The 2% price rise came on lighter volume compared to sessions dating back to June 26. Rising price accompanied by falling volume typically reflects a narrowing base of buyers behind each incremental push higher.
The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart reinforced the weak momentum picture. XRP's RSI stood at 37.97, well below the neutral threshold of 50. Additionally, the chart is displaying the early stages of a hidden bearish divergence — a pattern in which price prints lower highs while RSI prints higher highs. This formation, if confirmed, often precedes a resumption of a downtrend.
Confirmation of the bearish divergence depends on specific price action. If XRP fails to reclaim the recent swing high near $1.069 and the next daily candle closes lower, the divergence signal is complete. Until that occurs, the setup remains a developing risk rather than a confirmed outcome.
Key price levels now define the near-term path. Resistance sits at $1.069; a clean daily close above that level would neutralize the current bearish divergence setup and reopen upside potential. A more meaningful bullish shift would require XRP to clear $1.099, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
On the downside, initial support is identified at $1.046. A break below that level would expose the psychologically significant $1.00 zone, with deeper support near $0.979 if selling pressure intensifies.
The current configuration — reduced holder buying, lower open interest, negative funding rates, and below-neutral RSI — points to a market in a holding pattern rather than one building toward a directional breakout. The $1.069 resistance level represents the immediate dividing line between a continuation toward $1.099 and a pullback into the $1.00 support region.
