XRP Breaks $1.06 Support — Analyst Warns of Up to 32% Further Decline
Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez has released a comprehensive bearish roadmap for XRP, drawing on fresh on-chain metrics and classic technical analysis. His conclusion is straightforward: the asset has surrendered a critical support level, and the next downside targets now sit between 22% and 32% below the current trading price.
The pivotal signal that triggered this warning was the breakdown of the $1.06 price level. On-chain realized price distribution data reveals that over 830 million XRP tokens changed hands around that zone, making it the most heavily defended support for buyers. By the close of June 30, however, the price had sliced through that high-volume cluster and slid down to $1.03.
Once that level gave way, the entire volume block effectively transformed into overhead resistance. Every holder who accumulated near $1.06 is now sitting at an unrealized loss, generating persistent selling pressure and nullifying daily bullish signals that had previously pointed to a recovery.
Despite the gloomy outlook, Martinez acknowledges one factor that has temporarily cushioned the decline: a notable divide among XRP participants. While large holders — commonly referred to as whales — have been actively offloading positions against a backdrop of broader liquidity contraction across crypto markets, retail traders appear to be stepping in to absorb that supply. Evidence of this countermovement is visible in network activity data: the number of daily active addresses on the XRP ledger has surged by nearly 50%, reaching approximately 40,000.
The TD Sequential indicator has also printed a short-term rebound signal on the daily chart, offering some encouragement to bulls. Martinez, however, cautions that any bounce will likely remain a brief pause rather than a genuine reversal unless XRP reclaims $1.06 on a daily closing basis.
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, XRP is contending with resistance at the upper boundary of a long-standing ascending channel. Martinez's roadmap outlines two primary bearish price targets should the $1.06 breakdown be confirmed:
The first target sits at $0.80, which represents an intermediate support level near the midpoint of the broader trading channel, where a meaningful volume cluster is located.
The second and more significant target is $0.70 — the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel, which also coincides with a historically important accumulation zone.
The weekly candle close will serve as the market's key verdict. If retail buying fades and whale distribution continues below $1.06, the probability of a 30%+ drawdown in XRP will rise substantially. Traders and investors are advised to monitor both on-chain volume shifts and price action around the $1.06 level closely before making any positioning decisions.
As always, this analysis reflects the views of the cited analyst and should not be construed as financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct independent research and consult qualified professionals before acting on any market information.
