XRP After the $1 Retest: Three Possible Paths Forward

XRP recently touched a critical low of $1.00, prompting both bulls and bears to reassess their strategies. The dip came on the heels of May's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report — the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure — which was released on Thursday and came in hotter than expected. The Fed's preferred gauge climbed to its highest point since 2023, reinforcing the central bank's hawkish stance on monetary policy and adding fresh pressure to risk assets like XRP.

Leading up to the $1 test, XRP had already endured three consecutive days of selling pressure. During that stretch, the token briefly challenged a significant volume zone at $1.06 — a price point where more than 830 million XRP previously changed hands. Despite the historical weight of that level, buyers were unable to defend it decisively, allowing the slide toward $1.00 to continue.

Following the retest of $1.00 on Friday, however, XRP staged a recovery that extended into Saturday. As of the latest data, the token is trading at approximately $1.07, reflecting a gain of roughly 2.95% over the past 24 hours.

**Scenario One: The Rebound Holds**

The first and most optimistic path sees XRP continuing its recovery. If buyers step in at the $1.06 zone — backed by the 830 million XRP that previously transacted there — this level could transform into a reliable support base. Sustained buying interest at this price would signal renewed confidence among market participants.

**Scenario Two: Sideways Consolidation**

The second scenario envisions XRP entering a period of consolidation as the broader market waits for fresh catalysts. With macroeconomic uncertainty still elevated and no immediate bullish triggers on the horizon, the token could trade in a tight range while investors look for directional cues.

**Scenario Three: A Break Below $1.00**

The third and most bearish scenario involves XRP failing to hold current levels, leading to a confirmed breach of the $1.00 floor. On-chain analyst Ali has outlined the next key support targets should this occur. According to transaction history from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data, meaningful volume clusters are located at $0.80, where 923 million XRP changed hands; at $0.62, where 1.16 billion XRP were transacted; and at $0.51, where 1.06 billion XRP previously exchanged ownership. These levels would become the primary targets in a continued downtrend.

**RLUSD Gains Momentum on Multiple Fronts**

Beyond price action, the XRP ecosystem saw a noteworthy development this week on the stablecoin front. The XRP Ledger has now surpassed Ethereum in terms of RLUSD supply held on-chain. Data from Ripple's stablecoin tracker indicates that RLUSD circulating on the XRP Ledger has reached $810 million, edging past the $760 million figure on Ethereum.

Additionally, Japan's Financial Services Agency granted regulatory approval for RLUSD, classifying it as a new form of electronic payment instrument under the country's Payment Services Act. The stablecoin will be made accessible to both institutional and retail users through SBI VC Trade, marking a significant step in RLUSD's expansion across Asian markets.

With macroeconomic headwinds still in play and key on-chain support levels under scrutiny, the coming days will be decisive for XRP's near-term trajectory.