Bitcoin bounced back to $63,600 on August 3 after dipping near $62,200. Large wallet holders grabbed 19,610 coins in the last few days while retail investors kept selling. The split reveals who's holding conviction right now.
The Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio, a metric tracked by CryptoQuant, dropped to 0.031. That puts it in the third percentile of the entire halving cycle. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted the reading sits below 97% of all daily observations since April 2024. When this ratio falls this low, it usually means profitable sellers have stepped back and fewer people are offloading coins at a loss. The market gets quieter.
Whales Absorbing Supply, Retail Still Nervous
Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 19,610 coins since July 29, boosting their combined holdings by roughly 0.14%. Meanwhile, small accounts holding less than 0.01 BTC trimmed their balances. The divergence suggests bigger players smell opportunity while smaller traders remain cautious about the bottom being in.
This doesn't confirm Bitcoin has found its floor. Similar pressure readings happened late in previous bear markets, but the ratio stayed compressed for months while prices bounced inside wide ranges and sometimes carved new lows before climbing. Adler said the current setup favors long-term risk and reward, though he stopped short of calling a bottom confirmed. The ratio has lingered below its 25th percentile since late January, and its two-month average sits below 5%, showing the market is still repricing itself.
This article is informational only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
