US Jobs Report Due Thursday With Analysts Divided on Outcome

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to publish June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Thursday at 12:30 GMT, with the consensus forecast pointing to a 110K increase in jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are projected to rise to 3.5% year-over-year from 3.4% in May.

Market participants are paying close attention to the release as Federal Reserve policy expectations shift in a hawkish direction under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in roughly a 34% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike as early as July, up sharply from just 6% in early June. The probability of at least two rate increases by the end of 2026 now stands slightly above 40%.

Several analyst forecasts fall well below the market consensus. TD Securities expects June payrolls to come in at 80K — broken down as 55K private-sector and 25K government jobs — citing a natural cooling after strong early-2026 gains. The firm projects the Unemployment Rate edging down to 4.2% on lower participation, with AHE moderating to 0.2% month-over-month, in line with the 3.5% year-over-year consensus.

National Bank of Canada Senior Economist Jocelyn Paquet also forecasts a below-consensus 90K increase in NFP. Paquet points to soft employment indicators — including the S&P Global flash composite PMI — and a rise in initial jobless claims between the May and June survey periods as reasons for caution, while noting that job creation remained 'fairly robust.'

Wednesday's ADP private-sector employment report added to the cautious tone. ADP recorded 98K new private-sector jobs in June, missing the market expectation of 113K and down from the 122K gain posted in May.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack added to the hawkish backdrop earlier this week. Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, Hammack described the labor market as 'right around full employment,' characterized growth as looking 'good,' and warned that 'inflation is still too high,' leaving the door open to rate hikes. FXStreet's Speechtracker assigned her remarks a score of 6.4 out of 10, slightly below the historical hawkish average of 7.0 but still signaling a tightening bias.

Global inflation concerns are also weighing on sentiment. Despite crude oil prices retreating to pre-US-Iran conflict levels, investors remain wary of sticky inflation driven in part by elevated consumer electronics costs linked to AI-driven hardware demand. That backdrop has supported the US Dollar against major peers.

For EUR/USD, the NFP outcome carries direct implications. A strong reading of 130K or above could reinforce July rate hike expectations and extend downward pressure on the pair. A weak print below 70K might trigger a short-term correction higher, though analysts caution that a sustained bullish reversal in EUR/USD is unlikely without a broader shift in Fed communication toward labor market concerns over inflation.

Technical analysis from Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, indicates the bearish bias in EUR/USD remains intact. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is holding below 40 after recovering from oversold territory, and the pair is trading just above the lower arm of the Bollinger Band. Key support levels are identified in the 1.1320–1.1280 zone, followed by 1.1160 and 1.1000.