Tesla reported Q2 2026 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, marking a 25% increase year over year and beating consensus estimates of 397,466 units.
Revenue for the quarter is expected between $26.21 billion and $27.3 billion, reflecting roughly 16% growth compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $0.50 to $0.55, up from $0.40 a year prior, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to reach $4 billion, nearly doubling the $2.3 billion recorded in Q2 2025.
Despite solid operational results, Tesla’s free cash flow is anticipated to be deeply negative at around -$3.25 billion for the quarter, a significant decline from positive $5.6 billion in Q2 2025. Capital expenditures are set to jump to $6.7 billion driven by investments in Optimus humanoid robots, the Cybercab production ramp, and AI data center expansions. For 2026, Tesla plans $25 billion in capital spending, sharply higher than under $10 billion in 2025.
Sales growth varied across regions: U.S. sales faced headwinds with a 20% decline after the federal EV tax credit expired, while European registrations surged, doubling in May and spurring a production increase at Giga Berlin. China also contributed positively to Tesla’s demand.
Tesla's stock has dropped approximately 16% year to date and has missed adjusted EPS estimates in five of the last eight quarters. Gross automotive margins, excluding regulatory credits, are expected to be near 18%, down about the same range from prior quarters.
This material is informational and does not constitute financial advice.
